ST Shutters (2021) Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029. Plos One 16(12):e0260797, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0260797 

While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ST Shutters, H Seibert, B Alm, K Waters (2021) Industry interconnectedness and regional economic growth in Germany. Urban Science, 6(1):1, doi:10.3390/urbansci6010001 

Urban systems, and regions more generally, are the epicenters of many of today’s social issues. Yet they are also the global drivers of technological innovation, and thus it is critical that we understand their vulnerabilities and what makes them resilient to different types of shocks. We take regions to be systems composed of internal networks of interdependent components.

J Lobo, M Alberti, M Allen-Dumas, LMA Bettencourt, A Beukes, LA Bojórquez Tapia, W-Q Chen, A Dodge, Z Neal, A Perreira, D Pfeiffer, A Revi, D Roberts, C Rozenblat, ST Shutters, ME Smith, E Stokes, D Strumsky, J Wu (2021) A Convergence Research Perspective on Graduate Education for Sustainable Urban Systems Science.

Sustainable urban systems (SUS) science is a new science integrating work across established and emerging disciplines, using diverse methods, and addressing issues at local, regional, national, and global scales. Advancing SUS requires the next generation of scholars and practitioners to excel at synthesis across disciplines and possess the skills to innovate in the realms of research, policy, and stakeholder engagement. We outline key tenets of graduate education in SUS, informed by historical and global perspectives.

Rybski D, Pradhan P, Shutters ST, Butsic V, Kropp JP (2021) Characterizing the sectoral development of cities. PLoS ONE 16(7): e0254601.

Previous research has identified a predictive model of how a nation’s distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture (a), industry (i), and services (s) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model.

Kinzig, A. and S. T. Shutters (2021). “Coronavirus and the Public Good”. In Resilience Matters: Reimagining the Future in a Tumultuous Year 147-148. ed. L. Mazur. Washington, DC: Island Press. Download free copy [PDF]

It’s an election year, and Americans are debating big issues: capitalism and socialism, the role of government, the future of health care. These issues reflect what some see as a conflict between individual well-being and the greater public good. Do we want an up-by-your-bootstraps society where people mostly look after their own, or do we want a strong safety net for those who fall on hard times

Now the coronavirus is upon us. In its shadow, the line between individual well-being and the public good is harder to see.

Shutters ST, Kandala SS, Wei F, Kinzig AP. Resilience of Urban Economic Structures Following the Great Recession. Sustainability. 2021; 13(4):2374.

The future sustainability of cities is contingent on economic resilience. Yet, urban resilience is still not well understood, as cities are frequently disrupted by shocks, such as natural disasters, economic recessions, or changes in government policies. These shocks can significantly alter a city’s economic structure. Yet the term economic structure is often used metaphorically and is often not understood sufficiently by those having to implement policies. Here, we operationalized the concept of economic structure as a weighted network of interdependent industry sectors. For 938 U.S.

Painter, D.T.; Shutters, S.T.; Wentz, E. Innovations and Economic Output Scale with Social Interactions in the Workforce. Urban Sci. 20215, 21.

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 fundamentally changed the way we interact with and engage in commerce. Social distancing and stay-at-home orders leave businesses and cities wondering how future economic activity moves forward. The reduction in face-to-face interactions creates an impetus to understand how social interactivity influences economic efficiency and rates of innovation. Here, we create a measure of the degree to which a workforce engages in social interactions, analyzing its relationships to economic innovation and efficiency. We do this by decomposing U.S.

Shutters, Shate T., and J.M. Applegate. "Disappearing Economic Mobility in US Micropolitan Areas." Available at SSRN 3615171 (2020).

Urbanization has resulted in over half of humanity now living in cities. A key driver of this process is the pursuit of economic opportunities unique to urban areas. One of those opportunities is the promise of higher wages in larger cities, a phenomenon known as the urban wage premium. While the urban wage premium has been well‐documented among U.S. metropolitan areas, little is known about its existence among micropolitan areas, which represent an important link between rural and dense urban areas and likely influence both urbanization and deurbanization.

S.T. Shutters, K. Waters (In Review). Industrial structure and a tradeoff between productivity and resilience. Available at SSRN:

We analyze how a region’s industrial structure affects its productivity and its resilience to shocks. Using co-occurrence analysis, we construct an interdependence network of U.S. industries. For each U.S. metropolitan area, we then calculate an aggregate metric of this network called economic tightness, which captures the interconnectedness among a region’s industries.

Applegate, J.M, Janssen, Marco, "Job Mobility and Wealth Inequality", Computational Economics. 2020 Oct 30; 1-25. DOI10.1007/s10614-020-10064-8.

The extent to which employees change jobs, known as the job mobility rate, has been steadily declining in the US for decades. This decline is understood to have a negative impact on both productivity and wages, and econometric studies fail to support any single cause brought forward. This decline coincides with decreases in household savings, increases in household debt and wage stagnation.