Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment / CBIE Working Papers / On Our Rapidly Shrinking Capacity to Comply with the Planetary Boundaries on Climate Change

On Our Rapidly Shrinking Capacity to Comply with the Planetary Boundaries on Climate Change

CBIE_WP-2016-001

Abstract

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model for analyzing the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries on climate change: 1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550ppm until 2100 and 2) recovering 350ppm in 2100. Results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: 1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies, emphasizing the need to define a trajectory target instead of single point target); and 2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% of negative emissions) before 2060 in order to recover 350ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay.

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Published April 27, 2016

Jean-Denis Mathias, IRSTEA (National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture)

J. Marty Anderies, Arizona State University, School of Sustainability/School of Human Evolution and Social Change

Marco A. Janssen, Arizona State University, School of Sustainability, , Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment